HomeMy WebLinkAboutCity of Tamarac Ordinance O-2005-018Temp. Ord. #2093
August 10, 2005
Page 1 of 8
Revision #1 08/24/05
CITY OF TAMARAC, FLORIDA
ORDINANCE NO. 0-2005-_1 !a_
AN ORDINANCE OF THE CITY COMMISSION OF THE
CITY OF TAMARAC, FLORIDA; AMENDING THE CITY OF
TAMARAC CODE OF ORDINANCES BY SPECIFICALLY
AMENDING CHAPTER 13, ENTITLED,
"MISCELLANEOUS OFFENSES," TO CREATE SECTION
13-20, ENTITLED "SEX OFFENDER RESIDENCY
PROHIBITION;" PROVIDING FOR FINDINGS AND
INTENT; ENACTING SECTION 13-21 ENTITLED
"DEFINITIONS;" ENACTING SECTION 13-22, ENTITLED
"SEXUAL OFFENDER AND SEXUAL PREDATOR
RESIDENCE PROHIBITION; PENALTIES; EXCEPTIONS, $9
PROVIDING FOR A PROHIBITION FOR SEXUAL
OFFENDERS AND SEXUAL PREDATORS CONVICTED
OF CRIMES UNDER CERTAIN FLORIDA STATUTES
FROM LIVING WITHIN 2500 FEET OF SPECIFIED
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CITY OF TAMARAC;
ENACTING SECTION 13-23, ENTITLED "PROPERTY
OWNERS PROHIBITED FROM RENTING REAL
PROPERTY TO CERTAIN SEXUAL OFFENDERS AND
SEXUAL PREDATORS; PENALTIES, I$ PROHIBITING
OWNERS OF REAL PROPERTY FROM RENTING OR
LEASING ANY PLACE, STRUCTURE, OR PART
THEREOF, TRAILER OR OTHER CONVEYANCE
LOCATED WITHIN 2500 FEET OF SPECIFIED
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CITY OF TAMARAC TO
SEXUAL OFFENDERS AND SEXUAL PREDATORS
CONVICTED OF CRIMES UNDER CERTAIN FLORIDA
STATUTES; PROVIDING FOR CONFLICT; PROVIDING
FOR SEVERABILITY; PROVIDING FOR CODIFICATION
AND PROVIDING FOR AN EFFECTIVE DATE.
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Temp. Ord. #2903
August 10, 2005
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Revision #1 08/24/05
WHEREAS, the City Commission of the City of Tamarac is deeply concerned
about the numerous recent occurrences in our state and elsewhere, whereby convicted
sex offenders who have been released from custody repeat the unlawful acts for which
they had originally been convicted; and
WHEREAS, the City Commission of the City of Tamarac finds from the available
evidence that the recidivism rate for released sex offenders is alarmingly high,
especially for those who commit their crimes on children; and
WHEREAS, the City of Tamarac is a very attractive place of residence for
families with small children; and
WHEREAS, the City Commission of the City of Tamarac desires to establish a
policy which provides the maximum protection of the lives and persons in the City of
Tamarac; and
WHEREAS, the City has the authority, pursuant to Article VIII, Section 2(b) of the
Florida Constitution, and Section 166.021, Florida Statutes, to adopt such provisions in
order to protect the health, safety, and welfare of its residents; and
WHEREAS, the United States 8 th Circuit Court of Appeals recently issued an
opinion in the case of Doe v. Miller, 405 F-3d 700 (8 th Cir. 2005), in which the Court
upheld similar residency restrictions contained in the State of Iowa Statutes, and found
the restrictions to be constitutional; and
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Temp. Ord. #2903
August 10, 2005
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Revision #1 08/24/05
WHEREAS, the City Commission finds that the creation of a Sexual Offender
Residency Prohibition section of the City Code of Ordinances to prohibit sex offenders
convicted of crimes under certain Florida Statutes from living within two thousand five
hundred feet (2500') of specified locations in the City of Tamarac is in the best interest
of the health, safety, and welfare of the residents and citizens of the City of Tamarac.
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT ORDAINED BY THE CITY COMMISSION OF THE
CITY OF TAMARAC, FLORIDA THAT:
SECTION 1: The foregoing "WHEREAS" clauses are hereby ratified and
confirmed as being true and correct and are hereby made a specific part of this
Ordinance upon adoption hereof.
SECTION 2: The City Commission of the City of Tamarac hereby amends
Chapter 13, "Miscellaneous Offenses," of the City of Tamarac Code of Ordinances by
creating a new Section 13-20, entitled "Sexual Offender Residency Prohibition Findings
and Intent," to read as follows:
Sec-13-20 Sexual Offender Residency Prohibition Findings and
Infant
(a) Repeat sexual offenders, sexual offenders who use physical
violence, and sexual offenders who ---prey on children are sexual
predators who present an extreme threat tothe public safety. Sexual
offenders are extremely likely to use physical violence and to - repea
their offenses, and most sexual offenders commit many offenses, have
many more victims than are ever reported, and are prosecuted for only a
fraction of their crimes. This makes the cost of sexual offender
victimization to society at IaLge, while incalculable, clearly exorbitant.
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Temp. Ord. #2903
August 10, 2005
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Revision #1 08/24/05
(b)—it is the intent of this ordinance to serve the city's compelling
interest to promote, protect and imRLqve the health, safety and welfare of
the citizens of the City by creating areas around locations where children
regularly congregate in concentrated numbers wherein certain sexual
offenders and sexual ---- predators are prohibited from establishing
tqmporary or permanent residence.
SECTION 3: The City Commission of the City of Tamarac hereby amends
Chapter 13, "Miscellaneous Offenses," of the City of Tamarac Code of Ordinances by
creating a new Section 13-21, entitled "Definitions," to read as follows:
Sec. 13-21. Definitions.
The following words, terms and phrases, when used in this article, shall
have the meanings ascribed to them in this section, except where the
context cle@Lly indicates a different meaning:
La) "Permanent resi ence" mean§ a place where the person abides,
lodges, or resides for 14 or more consecutive days.
(DI "Temporary residence" means a place where the person abides,
lod-ges, or resides for -a- period of 14 or more days in the ag- gate
during- -any calendar year and which is not -the person's permanent
address, or a place where the person routinUl abides, lodges, or resides
for a period of 4 or more consecutive or nonconsecutive days in -any
month and which is not -the person's permanent residence.
(c) "Park" means an area of land set aside for public use or
maintained for recreational and ornamental purposes, usually consisting
of grass, trees, paths, sports fields, playgrounds, picnic areas and/or
other features for amusement and relaxation.
SECTION 4. The City Commission of the City of Tamarac hereby amends
Chapter 13, "Miscellaneous Offenses," of the City of Tamarac Code of Ordinances by
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Temp. Ord. #2903
August 10, 2005
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Revision #1 08/24/05
creating a new Section 13-22, entitled "Sexual Offender and Sexual Predator Residence
Prohibition; Penalties; Exceptions," to read as follows:
Section 13-22 Sexual Offender and Sexual Predator Residence
Prohibition; Penalties; Exceptions.
(a) It is unlawful for any person who has been convicted of a violation
of §§794.011, 800.04, 827.071, or 847.0145, Fla. Stat., regardless of
whether adjudication has been withheld, in which the victim of the
offense was less than-16 years of age, to establish a permanent
residence or temporary residence within two thousand five hundred
LZ500) feet of any school, designated school bus stop, day care center,
park, playground, or other place where children regularly congregate.
b) It is unlawful for anv Person who is reauired to reaister as a
Sexual Predator under the laws of the State of Florida, to establish a
permanent residence or temporary within two thousand five hundred
(2500) feet of any school,- designated school bus stop, day care center,
.park, playground, or other -place where children regulariv conareaate.
(c) For purposes of determining the minimum distance separation,
the re-quirement shall be measq[gd_by following a straight line from the
outer property line of the permanent residence or temporary residence
to the nearest outer property line of a school, designated school bus
stop, day care center, park, playground, or other place where children
regularly congregate.
(d) Penalties. A person who violates this section shall be punished
by a fine not exceeding $500.00 or by imprisonment for a term not
exceeding 60 days, or by both such fine and imprisonment-jor a second
or subsequent conviction of a violation of this section, such person shall
be punishpd by a fine not to exceed $1,000.00 or imprisonment in the
county -jail not more than 12 months, or -by both such fine and
imprisonment.
(e) Exceptions. A person residing within two thousand five hundred
(2500) feet of any school, designated school bus stop, day care center,
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Temp. Ord. #2903
August 10, 2005
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Revision #1 08/24/05
park, playground, or other place where children regularly congregate
does not commit a violation of this section if any of the following apply:
(1) The registered person established the permanent
residence prior to September 1, 2005.
(2) - ----The person was a minor when he/she committed the
offense and was not convicted as an adult.
(3) The person is a minor.
(4) The school, designated school bus stop or day care center
within two thousand five hundred (2500) feet of the person's permanent
residence was opened after the person established the permanent
residence.
SECTION 5. The City Commission of the City of Tamarac hereby amends
Chapter 13, "Miscellaneous Offenses", of the City of Tamarac Code of Ordinances by
creating a new Section 13-23, entitled "Property Owners Prohibited from Renting Real
Property to Certain Sexual Offenders and Sexual Predators; Penalties," to read as
follows:
Sec. 13-23 Property Owners Prohibited from Renting Real
Property to Certain Sexual Offenders and Sexual Predators;
Penalties.
(a) -it is unlawful to let or rent any place, structure, or part thereof,
trailer or other conveyance, with the knowledge that it will be used as a
permanent residence or tempora[y residence by any person prohibited
from establishing such permanent residence of tempora[y residence
pursuant to s. 134.62 of this Code, if such place, structure, or pa
thereof, trailer or other conveyance, is located within two thousand five
hundred (2500) feet of any school, designated school bus stop, day care
center, park, playground, or otherplace where children regularl
congregate.
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Temp. Ord. #2903
August 10, 2005
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(b) A property owner's failure to comply with provisions of this section
shall constitute a violation of this section, and shall submect the propert
owner to the code enforcement provisions and procedures as provided
for in this Code of Ordinances, including the provisions that allow the cit
to seek relief as otherwise provided by law.
SECTION 6: It is the intention of the City Commission of the City of Tamarac
that the provisions of this Ordinance shall become and be made a part of the Code of
Ordinances of the City of Tamarac, Florida, and that the Sections of this Ordinance
may be renumbered, re -lettered and the word "Ordinance" may be changed to
"Section," "Article" or such other word or phrase in order to accomplish such intention.
ISECTION 7: All Ordinances or parts of Ordinances, Resolutions or parts of
Resolutions in conflict herewith are hereby repealed to the extent of such conflict.
SECTION 8: If any provision of this Ordinance or the application thereof to any
person or circumstances is held invalid, such invalidity shall not affect other provisions
or applications of this Ordinance that can be given affect without the invalid provision or
application, and to this end the provisions of this ordinance are to be severable.
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Temp. Ord. #2903
August 10, 2005
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Revision #1 08/24/05
SECTION 9: This Ordinance shall become effective on adoption.
PASSED, FIRST READING this A DAY OF 2005.
PASSED, SECOND READING this +h DAY OFCXnfe--Mb-r-(-, 2005.
1
CITY OF TAMARAC, FLORIDA
BY:
ATTEST: �4YOR/JG§E-01-1 SCHREIBER
RECORD OF COMMISSION VOTE: 1st Reading
MARION SWENSON, CMC MAYOR SCHREIBER Aic
CITY CLERK DIST 1: COMM. PORTNER C-
DIST 2: V/M TALABISCO
DIST 3: COMM. SULTANOF
DIST 4: COMM. ROBERTS
I HEREBY CERTIFY that
I have approved this
ORDINANCE as to form. RECORD OF COMMISSION VOTE: 2nd Reading
MAYOR SCHREIBER fr.
DIST 1: COMM. PORTNER Ale
DIST 2: V/M TALABISCO
DIST 3: COMM. SU1LTANO,,jF'k1'1
DIST 4: COMM. ROBERTS
SAMUIJL S. GOREN
INTERIM CITY ATTORNEY
SSG:JVA
HA2005\050164 TAMARAMORD 2005\Tamarac Sexual Offender.doc
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No Text
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Reports & Statistics
Reports & Statistics-
0 1.3 million children were sexually assaulted in 1995.
The Gallup Poll
December, 1995
a Nearly 50% of all rape victims are under the age of 18
0 29% of rape victims are 12-17 years old
0 15% of rape victims are younger than 12
Lawrence Greenfeld, Bureau of Justice statistics
"Sex Offenses and Offenders"
February 2, 1997
0 250,000-500,000 pedophiles reside in the United States,
U.S. Department of Justice
0 Convicted child molesters who abused girls had an average of 52 victims each. Men who molested
boys had an astonishing average of 1,50 victims.
In a study funded by the National institute of Mental Health
Dr. Gene G. Abel, Emory University
0 100 children are kidnapped by strangers each year in the United States.
U.S. Department of Justice, 2002
"Even if firearms -related homicides were excluded, the United States has a homicide rate for children
almost four times the other countries' rate."
The Centers for Disease Control and PrLvention; Atlanta, Georgia
February 6, 1997
0 1 in 3-4 girls is sexually abused before age 18.
0 1 in 6-8 boys is sexually assaulted by age 18.
9 89% of child sexual assault cases involve persons known to the child, such as a caretaker or Family
acquaintance.
Diane Russell Survey, 1978
0 2/3rds of babies born to teenage mothers were fathered by adult men, not the fellow classmates long
suspected,
The Alan Guttmacher Institute, 1996
Based on a California Study
* 13% of adult women have been victims of at least one rape.
0 62% of those assaults occurred before the age of 18.
0 29% of rape victims were younger than 12.
"Rape in America," 1992 - Nat'l Crime Victims Research & Treatment Center; Medical College ofSouth
Carolina
"One of the things that surprised us was that rape in America is a tragedy of youth." - Professor Dean
Kilpatrick, co-author
0 2/3rds of sex Offenders currently In state prisons sexually assaulted children under the age of 18. All
but 3% of offenders were male.
U,S. Department of)ustice; March, 1996
"Child victimizers: Violent Offenders & Their Victims"
0 97% of sexually assaultive crimes are committed by men against women and children.
The FBi
0 13% of American women have been raped
httP://www.chiIdlures.com/research/statistics,asp 8/23/2005
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0 25% were 10 years old or younger at the time
Pat Tjaden, Center for Policy Research in Denver
Study yet to be publishedi Quoted from Feb, 3, 1997 New York Times
0 "Sexual assault continues to represent the most rapidly growing violent crime in America, claiming a
victim every 4 seconds. Over 61% of female victims are under the age of
Lonnie Bristow, M,D,
President, American Medical Association
November, 1995
0 "Violent child victimizers were substantially more likely than adult victimizers to have been physically
or sexually abused when they were children."
0 Just 14% of child victimizers used a weapon, compared to nearly half of those who victimized adults.
U-S, Department oflustice; March, 1996
"Child Victimizers,� Violent Offienders & Their Victims�
The mental scars of any type of victimization last a lifetime, We must address the psychological side
of our violence epidemic in order to stop the cycle of violence in society.
Dr. Marilyn Benoit
American Medical Association's National Advisory Council on Family Violence
htt.p://www,childlures.com/research/statistics.asp 8/23/2005
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tio-me / ResearcftAAMOes / A Profile of the Child Molester
A Profile of the Child Molester
by Memneti?__W(Loden
Peclophiles possess no tidy criminal profile. They conic from all walks of life. Some are married, some single;
some professional, some blue,collar; some young, some retired. Some prefer boys, and some prefer girls.
Some are attracted to Young children, others to older children, In short, peclophilia, or sexual attraction to
children by an adult, is a sickness that does not discriminate by race, class, or, age. It knows no bounds, and
afflicts people in every segment of society.
Most pedophiles do, however, share several characteristics. The overwhelming majority of pedophiles are
male. Only a very small percentage of women abuse children sexually, and they are usually cooperating with
a male aggressor.
Few peclophiles are able to resist their powerful urges to initiate sexual contact with children. As a result, child
molesters often make efforts to gain access to or authority over children. They take jobs where children are
easily approached, or they actively pursue youngsters by befriending parents (particularly single parents),
attending events for children, coaching children's sports, chaperoning camping trips, frequenting video
arcades, or offering baby-sitting services to friends, family, and neighbors with children.
The majority of peclophiles prefer children on the brink of puberty and prey on a. child's sexual ignorance and
curiosity. To quote one molester, "Give me a kid who knows nothing about sex, and you've given me my next
victim."
Small groups of militant and highly organized child molesters operate worldwide through peclophile
organizations, whose members claim genuine concern for the welfare of children, Their belief is that sex with
children is harmless; some even claim that sexual relations are healthy for children. These groups' goals
include decriminalizing child molestation and lowering the age of consent.
The actual number of members in these organizations is unknown, though one, the Rene Guyon Society, is
listed in the Gale Encyclopedia of Associations as having five thousand members, Other major peclophile
organizations include NAMBLA (The North American Man -Boy Love Association) and PAN (Pedophile Alert
Network) In the Netherlands. Members receive monthly magazines and newsletters that include seduction
techniques and advice on avoiding detection and prosecution. One groupis "Lure of the Month" column gives
advice on approaching and seducing children. In one month Is column, soap crayons were praised for their
effectiveness: "Children undress themselves!"
NAMBLA's "Entrapment of the Month" column has alerted members to covert government child -pornography
sting operations. In one newsletter alone, NAMBLA correctly identified ten sting operations in five different
states. In just three years, NAMBLA exposed and compromised four federal sting operations as well, including
Project Looking Glass, Candy's Love Club, Project Sea Hawk, and Project Borderline, Clearly, these
organizations have connections.
In addition to attending peclophile conferences and conventions, some child molesters meet via the Internet
where they may swap methods, success stories, even names, descriptions, and images of children, Customs
officials indicate that the anonymous nature of Internet communication is quickly replacing the printed
peclophile newsletter.
While the average child molester does not belong to a peclophile organization, we would be foolish not to take
seriously any group whose members are committed to sexual activity with children. Indeed, peclophiles are
often difficult to detect and can be found in the most unlikely of places. Knowing this, we must provide our
children with the tools to recognize and avoid potentially abusive individuals and situations.
http://www.childlures-com/research/molester.asp 8/23/2005
Home / Re ea h & Arti les / A 21st Century Model for Prevention
S .. �c
A 21st Century Model for Prevention
Protecting America's Children & Youth from SeXUal Predators
by Kenti eL4. Wooden
While performing in New York City's old Palace Theater back in 1921, comedienne Gracie Allen quipped to
George Burns, "My mother told me to 'Never Talk to Strangers ...... As far back as anyone can remember, that
safety slogan has served as the bedrock of child safety efforts. Paradoxically, personal safety literature and
programs generated over the years from the "Never Talk to Strangers" adage may have actually put children
at greater risk for abuse,
In reality, most children are sexually abused not by strangers, but by someone they know, at least on some
level - a neighbor, coach, babysitter, family friend, Boy Scout leader, clergyman, or even a family member,
Furthermore, pedophiles are notoriously personable with children and will go out of their way to put a child at
case. In the eyes of a childr even a complete stranger who engages the youngster in friendly conversation
quickly becomes someone that child "knows."
In 1993, a Chicago pre-schooler helped me educate millions of Americans concerning the "Stranger -Danger"
misnomer. In a wake -tip call to concerned parents, I demonstrated on The Oprah Winfrey Show how easy it is
to lure children out of a playground, even though they had been coached numerous times by their parents to
never talk to or go with strangers.
As a shocked nation watched, this 3-year-old girl followed me out of the playground gate after agreeing to
help me find a supposed lost puppy. Afterward, the little girl's clearly distraught mother asked In a shaky
voice, "Why did you go with that strange man?" Her daughter innocently answered, "He wasn't a stranger
Mommy, he was a nice man!"
Gracie Alien's reference to the "Never Talk to Strangers" safety slogan dates it as a 1921 Model of Prevention.
I recently asked military leaders within the National Security Agency:
"Would you fly combat troops in a 1921 model aircraft?"
"Would you arm soldiers with weapons manufactured in 1921?"
"Would you treat their wounds with medicine or medical techniques utilized in 1921?"
"Would you provide our armed forces with 1921 models of transportation, weaponry or
medicine in its efforts against the likes of Saddam Hussein?"
"Would you want our National Security using 1921 technology to monitor those who are a
threat to the United States?"
Of course not. Likewise, should we base our efforts to safeguard children on a 1921 model of prevention?
Absolutely not. To quote President Abe Lincoln, "The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy
present."
According to a Gallup Poll, 1.3 million children were victims of sexual abuse in 1995 alone, and that number
continues to rise each year. in the battle against America's epidemic of childhood sexual abuse, relevant and
effective prevention must be the priority.
- Kenneth Wooden
http://www.childlures.com/research/model2 Lasp 8/23/2005
- --I'- - __ -
Frequently Asked Questions and Statistics
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Please contact the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children's
(NCMEC) Office of Public Affairs by calling 1-877-44-NCMEC,
extension 6351, or 703-274-3900 if you have any questions about
the following information. You will need the Adobe@ Acrobata
Reader to view the documents on this page. Download a free copy of
the Adobe Acrobat Reader.
How many missing children are there?
Answer; The problem of missing children is complex and multifaceted. There are different types
of missing children Including family abductions; endangered runaways; nonfamily abductions;
and lost, injured, or otherwise missing children. The best national estimates for the number of
missing children are from incidence studies conducted by the U.S. Department of Justice's Office
of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention.
To date two such studies have been completed, The first National Incidence Studies of Missing,
Abducted, Runaway, and Thrownaway Children (NISMART-1) was released In 1990, and the
second, known as NISMART-2, was released In October 2002. According to NISMART-2
research, which studied the year 1999, an estimated 797,500 children were reported missing;
58,200 children were abducted by nonfamily members; 115 children were the victims of the
most serious, long-term nonfamily abductions called "stereotypical kidnappings"; and 203,900
children were the victims of family abductions.
REFERENCE: For more information on missing children abduction estimates and the
NISMART studies, please read
NI.S..MAR.T-.2,-.October..200.2. Nation.a.1 Fstlmati� p�ML$$i g_(71111aCqp: i w Adob PDF
_n . Anat�tv e e
NISIVIART-2, 0 . n., Nati no) EVimotes. - tics
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--- and.-CharacterhE
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.N.I.SMARI-.2._Q-(;tQb-eL-2-QQ2.- by-a'LnLIY--M--cm0irL-Not!P-a-a-I-Estlmat—L,,;-ofid
Chanaateri�tics Adobe PDF
N15IVIARL-_Z,_0ctober e VX
Chacocteristics Adobe PIDF _-Y-Cbi10M_Q:_t _kQ_nal__F_5_tL1nxt_e5 o!Ld
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What can I do to prevent family abduction?
Answer; The most important thing you can do to prevent abduction Is to maintain healthy
communication with your children and spouse. In the event of a family abduction, however,
having up-to-date photos of both your children and your spouse will be helpful. NCMEC also
recommends that you teach your child important telephone numbers and where to go In case of
an emergency.
REFERENCE: To learn about family abductions and how to prevent them please read
farkIde-n-t6camo-n—of Risk factg-r§ for Parental, Aoduction Adobe PDF
Justin Case Parental Guidelines in Case You A Car
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Aren't most missing kids a result of custodial disagreements?
Answer. The largest number of missing children are "runaways"; followed by "family
abductions"; then "lost, Injured, or otherwise missing children"; and finally, the smallest
category, but the one In which the child Is at greatest risk of Injury or death, "nonfamily
abductions." Many times this question is asked under the assumption that family abductions are
not a serious rnatter; however, this is not true, In most cases children are told that the left -
behind parent doesn't want or love them, These children may live the life of a fugitive, always
on the run with the noncustodial parent and stripped away from their home, friends, school, and
family.
REFERENCE: For definitions, kidnapping statistics, and more parental abduction
Information please read
tWdnapping. ANuvendes:-Patterns- From National In-cidea-(.aa-Ac�d-8.qP-Q�-SyEterr! NIBRS
PDF -L— J Adobe
Tb Kid IS_1V17h_A,P01�nt_How BaLI.Cam It Be2': hg sis oFf A
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How many missing children are found deceased? What hours are most critical when
trying to locate a missing child?
Answer: According to a 1997 study by the State of Washington's Office of the Attorney General
"the murder of a child who Is abducted ... Is a rare event. There are estimated to be about 100
such Incidents In the United States each year, less than one-half of one percent of the murders
committed"; however, "74 percent of abducted children who are murdered are dead within three
hours of the abduction."
REFERENCE: For victim and predator profiles and missing -children homicide Statistics
please read
CaseManagement forMissing Qjjjp(Len
_HqMicide Investig tion Adobe PDF
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How big of a problem is child sexual exploitation?
Answer: The sexual victimization of children is overwhelming in magnitude yet largely
unrecognized and underreported. Statistics show that 1 in 5 girls and 1, In 10 boys are sexually
exploited before they reach adulthood, yet less than 3.5% of those child sexual assaults are
reported to authorities.
REFERENCE: To learn more about child sexual exploitation and prevention, pleas e visit
R-C-M-Er,-'�-4;amp-Cigxk-�IgAinst child sexual expjoftation and read
Preventing. the, Se?gja I X il n
__L_pjajHtation of Ch dEe
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How many children are sexually approached and/or solicited online?
Answer: According to Highlights of the Youth Internet Safety Survey conducted by the U.S.
Department of Justice "one in five children (10 to 17 years old) receive unwanted sexual
solicitations online."
REFERENCE: For prevention resources and to learn about the seriousness of online
predators, online statistics, and profiles please read
Youth Int rnet
..�jafet Surve Adobe PDF
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Online Victimization:, A_flq.pQrtonthe_N12tJ:QR's _Youth
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Are "stranger -danger" Programs effective?
Answer: The National Center for Missing & Exploited Children (NCMEC) does not, as a matter of
policy, provide reviews of unsolicited materials, but we do appreciate knowing about educational
materials that are available to families. In 1984 the National Center for Missing & Exploited
Children was created as the clearinghouse federally mandated by the U.S. Congress to assist
families and law enforcement in cases of missing and exploited children. In that role we are
happy to share our general philosophy and information about resources regarding safety and
prevention education,
The National Center for Missing & Exploited Children does not ascribe to the "stranger-8anger"
message. We have learned that children do not have the same understanding of who a stranger
is as an adult might; therefore, it is a difficult concept for the child to grasp. It is much more
beneficial to children to help them build the confidence and self-esteem they need to stay as
safe as possible in any potentially dangerous situation they encounter rather than teaching them
to be "on the look out" for a particular type of person. The "stranger -danger" message is not
effective and, based on what we know about those who harm children, danger to children is
greater from someone they or their family knows than from a "stranger."
For decades, parents, guardians, and teachers have told children to "stay away from strangers,"
in an effort to keep them safe, In response to the on -going debate about the effectiveness of
such programs, NCMEC released the research -based guidelines fQr ftgrams to R urg Child
VictImization:A
R0591irce, for Communitie§� ing Pro m h PeLs n
Whan Chogs
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mn to assist schools as they select curricula aimed at reducing crimes against children.
NCMEC created its Education Standards Task Force In 1997 to assess leading research and tap
the best thinking to create meaningful, usable guidelines and criteria for child -safety curricula.
The Task Force concluded "while virtually every school conducts some sort of child -safety
program for its students, most are inadequate and few offer the kind of positive,
comprehensive, research -based, grade- and age -appropriate curricula that is necessary." The
Task Force concluded that all training and educational materials proposed for use by schools and
organizations that serve children should
• be based on accepted educational theories
• be appropriate for the age, educational, and developmental levels of the child
• offer concepts that will help children build self-confidence in order to better handle and
protect themselves in all types of situations
• have multiple program components that are repeated several years in a row
• utilize qualified presenters who use role-playing, behavioral rehearsal, feedback, and
active participation
These Guidelines include a Preparation Checklist, Curriculum Scorecard, and Program Evaluation
Checklist to "provide a framework for communities when selecting safety programs and making
curriculum decisions, in order for school decision -makers to provide the most effective program
possible" and one that children will enjoy and understand and will change children's behavior to
help keep them safer.
REFERENCE. To find out more about how to protect your children be sure to read
Child.Arptegtion
Guidelines hor Pro - Res r
gramshoReduce Child Victim lza tion... A ou ce for Comm ti When
Choosing -a. progmm to Teach Personal Safet to Childrqn
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Do the cards I get in the mail really help recover missing children?
Answer: Absolutely, One In six of the missing kids featured on these cards and through the
efforts of other NCMEC photo partners are recovered as a direct result of the photograph. In
fact, because of the ADVOO mailing, NCMEC reaches up to 79 million homes weekly with the
photographs of missing children.
11M.
Do you put pictures of missing kids an milk cartons?
Answer: Although NCMEC Itself does not post photographs of missing children on milk cartons,
NCMEC photo partners may do so. There are more than 360 active corporate photo partners
nationwide.
TOP
Is NCMEC John Walsh's organization?
Answer: After the abduction and murder of their son, Adam, In 1981, John and Revd Walsh
became effective advocates on behalf of missing children's issues. Mrs. Walsh serves on the
NCMEC Board of Directors and Mr. Walsh serves on the Board's Chief Executive Officers Council
and National Advisory Board, and acts as an NCMEC spokesperson. Their hard work and
determination. helped to create NCIVIEC which now serves as the national clearinghouse for
information on missing children and the prevention of child victimization.
REFERENCE: To learn more about NICIMEC and the many services It provides please
visit "Qur Servi "e" on this website or read
ktinu_a/ Report
About Us Adobe PDF
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Now can I help find missing children?
Answer. The best way to help NCMEC is to take the time to look at the photographs of missing
children in the many venues, including ADVO postcards, at Wal-Marta stores, In federal
buildings, and report any Information about those children to NCMEC's toll -free Hotline 1-800-
THE-LOST (1-800-843-5678). You can also help by keeping up-to-date photographs of your own
children. After all, one out of six of the children featured In this NCMEC'S photo distribution
program has been recovered as a direct result,
REFERENCE: To become more aware of ways you can help find missing children visit
the "kelljInvolved" area an this web site.
79.p
How do I get copies of NCMEC publications?
Answer: To obtain a list of or order NCMEC books and brochures, please call the toll -free
Hotline 1-800-THE-LOST (1-800-843-5678) or visit the _Pu.�HcAtjqns area on this web site.
LOP
May I photocopy NCIVIEC's safety tips?
Answer: As the federally mandated clearinghouse established to assist with cases of missing
and exploited children, the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children has a policy that
promotes the wide disseminating of our copyrighted publications for educational, noncommercial
purposes. Please read our &p_print Policy to learn the specific criteria under which you are
allowed to reprint and disseminate our copyrighted materials.
http://www.missingkids.comlmissingkidslscrvletIPageServlet?LanguageCountry=en—US&... 8/23/2005
TOP
What is the CyberTipline?
Answer. The Congressional ly- mandated CyberTlpline is a reporting mechanism for cases of
child sexual exploitation including pornographic images of children, online enticement of children
for sex acts, molestation of children outside the family, sex tourism of children, child victims of
prostitution, and unsolicited obscene material sent to a child. Reports may be made 24-hours
per day, 7 days per week online at www.cybertipline.com or by calling 1-800-843-5678,
Reference; For more Information, please visit the CyberTipline area on this web site.
�-YDP.�T-[p-1i—nq--F-@CLSheet Adobe PDF
Cy b-c rTh2Ln-e-:. Air va-1 -R-ep-ort Tvw!5 by--Lncl den Type Adobe PDF
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PREDICTORS OF SEXUAL OFFENDER RECIDIVISM:
A META -ANALYSIS
1996-04
By
R. Karl Hanson
Monique T. Bussi6re
The views expressed are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Ministry of the
Solicitor General of Canada.
This document is available in French. Ce rapport est disponible en franqais sous le titre: Les
pr6dicteurs de la r6cidive chez les Minquants sexuels : une mfta-analyse.
Abstract
E.x.e..c..u.t..i.v..e-....S.u.m.-m--a-,ry
Article.
Method
Results
Public Works and Government Services Canada
-1/1996-4E
Cat. No. JS4
ISBN: 0-662-24790-6
Table of content
54M.Pig
Codin rocedure
Index of predictive accgracy
Aggrpgation of findings
Generalizabilitv of findings
I .................
Predictors of sexual offense recidivism
....... -------- . ... ... I .... ..... . . ..... ................. . . . .... ... . .... . .........
P.redi.c.to-r--s-o,fl,.I,n.o..i.is-e.-xuaI violence recidivism.
Pre dictors of. gen.er..a.l."Ir..e..c..i..d.i.v..i..s..m.
.Combin.e.d. risk sc ales.
Di.s.c.u.'s.s.'i o.n.
Tables - see head frame
References - see head frame
Abstract
This review provides a quantitative sunu-nary of recidivism risk factors for sexual offenders. Based
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on 61 different data sets, approximately one third of the 165 predictor variables were significantly
related to recidivism (p < .05) with correlations of .10 or greater. Sexual offense recidivism was best
predicted by measures of sexual deviance (e.g., deviant sexual preferences, prior sexual offenses),
and, to a lesser extent, general criminological factors (e.g,, age, total prior offenses). The predictors
of nonsexual violent recidivism and general recidivism were similar to those recidivism predictors
found among nonsexual criminals. No single factor was sufficiently related to recidivism, however,
to justify its use in isolation. There remains a need for research to identify changeable, dynamic risk
factors.
Executive Summary
Sexual victimization is a serious social problem. Given the high rates of sexual victimization among
women and children (Johnson & Sacco, 1995; Peters et al., 1986), there must also be a significant
number of sexual offenders. A large number of sexual offenders raises important public policy
questions concerning how such offenders should be managed by the mental health and criminal
justice systems. Decisions concerning the management of individual offenders are often based on
based on assessments of dangerousness.
It is difficult to estimate the overall recidivism rates of sexual offenders since many offenses remain
undetected. Comparisons of the recidivism rates of different types of offenders, however, can yield
important information about relative recidivism risk (Furby, Weinrott & Blackshaw, 1989), The main
question addressed in the present report was the following: compared to other sexual offenders,
what factors increase or decrease their risk for recidivism? The question was addressed through a
quantitative summary of a large number of follow-up studies.
To be included in the review, the study had to a) identify a group of sexual offenders, b) include a
follow-up period, c) compute the relationship between some initial characteristic and subsequent
recidivism, d) record sexual, nonsexual violent, or any recidivism, and e) report sufficient statistical
information. Studies were identified through searching computerised data bases, examining the
reference lists of available articles, and by contacting established researchers in the field.
As of our deadline of December 31, 1995, our search yielded 87 usable documents (published
articles, government reports, unpublished program evaluations, raw data sets, etc.). These 87
articles reported on 61 different data sets from six different countries. Half of the studies were
produced after 1989. The median sample size was 198 (mean of 475, range of 12 to 4,428), and the
median follow-up period was four years. In total, the report examined 28,972 sexual offenders.
Two raters coded each study using a standard set of categories and coding rules. We examined all
predictor variables except treatment outcome. Treatment outcome with sexual offenders was
considered a sufficiently important topic to justify separate reviews (see Hall, 1995). A further
restriction was that each predictor variable had to be examined in at least three independent studies,
Overall, the review examined 69 potential predictors of sexual recidivism, 38 predictors of
nonsexual violent recidivism, and 58 predictors of general (any) recidivism.
The findings of each study were transformed into a common index of predictive accuracy: r. This
measure can range between -1 and +1. Whenr equals zero, there is no relationship between the
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variables. When r is -1 or +1, there is perfect prediction. A positive value of r indicate that offenders
witin the characteristic are more likely to recidivate, whereas negative values- indicate that recidivism
is less likely, In general, the value of r can be interpreted as the percentage difference in recidivism
rates between those offenders who have a particular characteristic and those offenders who do not
(Farrington & Loeber, 1989). The values of r were adjusted for differences in recidivism baserates
and then averaged across studies.
Given the average 4-5 year follow-up period, the overall recidivism rate was 13.4% for sexual
offenses (E = 23,393), 12.2 % for nonsexual violent offenses (n = 7,155) and 36.3 % for any recidivism
(n = 19,374). Rapists were much more likely to recidivate with a nonsexual violent offense (22.1 %)
than were child molesters (9.9%). These averages should be considered cautiously, however, since
they were based on diverse studies and many sexual offenses remain undetected.
The strongest predictors of sexual recidivism were characteristics related to sexual deviance, and, to
a lesser extent, general criminological variables. These predictors included phallometric assessments
of sexual preferences for children (I =32), prior sexual offenses (.19), age (-.13), early onset of sexual
offending (.12), any prior offenses (.13), and never being married (.11). The risk of recidivism was
lower for those offenders who were related to, or who knew, their victims (family members <
acquaintances < strangers). Those offenders who failed to attend or who dropped out of treatment
were higher risk than those who successfully completed treatment. Although based on a limited
number of studies, other interesting predictors included a negative relationship with their mother,
personality disorders, and the MMPI Masculinity -femininity scale.
Among sexual offenders, nonsexual recidivism was predicted by the Same variables that predict
recidivism among nonsexual criminals (Andrews & Bonta, 1994; Champion, 1994). Both nonsexual
violent recidivists and general rec ' idivists tended to be young, single, have antisocial/ psychopathic
personality disorders, be of a minority race and have a history of prior violent and nonviolent
offenses. Rapists recidivated nonsexually more often than did child molesters. Incest offenders were
lower risk than other sexual offenders for nonsexual recidivism.
The high statistical power generated by the meta -analysis also allowed for the identification of
factors that were not related to recidivism. Sexual offense recidivism was unrelated to having a
history of sexual abuse as a child, substance abuse, and general psychological problems (anxiety,
depression, low self-esteem, etc,). General psychological problems were also unrelated to nonsexual
recidivism. When comparing the findings of the meta -analysis to other research (McKibben, ProuIx
& Lusignan, 1994), it appears that extent to which sexual offenders are distress does not predict
recidivism, but sexual offenders appear to react deviantly when distress.
Although many individual factors were related to recidivism, the relationships tended to be modest
(. 10 to .20 range) . Even the strongest predictors, such as deviant sexual preferences or prior sexual
offenses, were not sufficiently reliable to justify their use in isolation. The next logical question was
how well recidivism could be predicted by combinations of risk factors. In general, clinical
assessments performed poorly (.06 to.14) in comparison to statistical risk procedures (.42 to.46).
The statistical risk procedures, however, should be considered to overestimate predictive accuracy
since they have yet to be replicated on other samples,
The report concludes with suggestions on how to improve risk assessments of sexual offenders.
Almost all the risk factors were historical (e.g., prior offenses) or extremely stable (e.g., personality
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disorders); consequently, there remains a need to identify changeable, dynamic risk factors. These
factors could be used to assess changes due to treatment and to predict when offenders may
recidivated. Research to identify dynamic risk factors may require improved assessment procedures
and different designs than those reviewed in the current report.
Prediction of sexual offender recidivism:
A meta -analysis
Sexual victimization is a common event (Johnson & Sacco, 1995; Koss, 1993; Peters, Wyatt, &
Finkelhor, 1986). Based on victimization surveys, approximately one in ten males and one in five
females report being sexually assaulted as children (Peters et al., 1986). Between 10% and 20% of
women report being the victim of sexual assault as adults (using criminal code definitions) (Johnson
& Vacco, 1995; Koss, 1993). Such surveys suggest that in addition to the large number of victims,
there must also be a significant number of sexual offenders. Carefully designed epidemiological
studies are unavailable, but studies using convenience samples (e,g., university students, hospital
staff) typically find that 10% to 25% of men admit to sexually assaulting women or children (Hanson
& Scott, 1995; Lisak & Roth, 1988; Templeman & Stinnett, 1991).
The large number of sexual offenders raises important public policy questions concerning how such
offenders should be managed by the mental health and criminal justice systems. Some jurisdictions
have opted for indefinite, preventative detention of their most dangerous sexual offenders
(Anderson & Masters, 1992). Most sexual offenders, however, are managed with some combination
of incarceration, community supervision, and specialized treatment (Knopp, Freeman -Longo &
Stevenson, 1992; The Management, 1990). The public policy/legal decisions concerning the
management of individual offenders are often guided by the expert testimony of mental health
professionals. An important aspect of such expert testimony are clinical assessments of
dangerousness.
The assessment of dangerousness of sexual offenders requires information concerning the overall
recidivism rate of sexual offenders and information about those factors that increase or decrease a
particular sexual offender's recidivism risk. It is difficult to specify a single recidivism rate for sexual
offenders since such rates vary with the different definitions of recidivism, Recidivism rates will be
lower for narrow definitions (e.g., repeat the same offense) than for broad definitions (e.g., any
reoffense). Recidivism rates will also increase with the length of the follow-up period.
Consequently, statements about recidivism rates have little meaning without specifying the
definition and follow-up period,
The most serious problem with estimating overall recidivism rates, however, is that a substantial
proportion of sexual offenses remain undetected. Comparisons between police statistics and
victimization surveys indicate that most sexual offenses, particularly offenses against children,
never come to official attention (Bonta & Hanson, 1994). It is also implausible to expect that the
offenders themselves will provide thorough accounts of their undetected sexual crimes.
Consequently, any empirical estimates of sexual offenders' recidivism rates should be considered
underestimates.
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Information concerning sexual offenders' relative risk (as opposed to their absolute risk) is more
tractible to empirical investigation. By assessing sexual offenders on some characteristics and then
recording their subsequent recidivism, it is possible to identify factors that differentiate the
recidivists from the nonrecidivists. Clinicians interested in empirically -based risk assessment can
then use these identified factors to estimate the relative recidivism risk of similar offenders.
Criminological researchers have made an important distinction between static and dynamic risk
factors (Andrews & Bonta, 1994; Bonta, 1996; Jones, 1996). Static factors, such as age and offense
history, predict recidivism, but are immutible to outside influences. In contrast, dynamic risk factors
(or "criminogenic needs"), such as criminal attitudes and criminal associates, are potentially
changeable. An important characteristic of dynamic risk factors is that reductions in such factors are
associated with reduced recidivism (Bonta, 1996). Static factors are useful for making assessments of
an offender's overall risk level. Knowledge of dynamic factors, however, is required to identify
targets for intervention, assess changes in risk (e.g., benefit from treatment), and predict the timing
of reoffenses.
Previous reviews of sexual offender recidivism have been limited to a narrow range of
predominantly static risk factors (Furby, Weinrott & Blackshaw, 1989; Hall, 1990; Quinsey,
Lalumi&e, Rice & Harris, 1995). Hall's (1990) review was primarily concerned with the
identification of sexual offenders, but he did review a small number of recidivism studies. He
concluded that there were "relatively small" differences in recidivism rates between the various
offender types. Furby et al. (1989) similarly devoted a small portion of their review to recidivism
risk predictors. They stated that "by far the best sources of data for comparing different offender
types are individual studies whose samples include more than one type and whose results are
presented separately for each type" (p. 26). Unfortunately, they were only able to locate five such
studies, from which they tentatively concluded that child molesters had lower recidivism rates than
did rapists or exhibitionists and that men who molest boys may be higher risk than those who
molest girls.
Quinsey, Lalumiere et al. (1995) were able to locate additional studies that compared the recidivism
rates of different types of sexual offenders (see also Quinsey, 1984, 1986). In contrast to Furby et al.
(1989), Quinsey, Lalumi(�re et al. (1995) concluded that the sexual offense recidivism rates were
similar for rapists and child molesters. Quinsey, Lalumiere et al. (1995) did report, however, that a
number of characteristics were associated with recidivism risk. Boy -victim child molesters were
found to be higher risk than men who molested extrafamilial girls, who, in turn, were higher risk
than incest offenders. For both rapists and child molesters, those with prior sexual or nonsexual
offenses recidivated more frequently than those without prior offenses, They also concluded that
laboratory assessed deviant sexual interests was related to recidivism. This latter finding is
important since it was the only identified risk factor that is potentially changeable (dynamic).
Quinsey, Lalumi&e et al. (1995) have provided the most thorough recent review, but they still only
focussed on a limited number of variables and a modest number of studies (10 to 15 different data
sets). As well, little information was provided concerning the relative importance of the various risk
factors. Such limitations are to be expected in any purely narrative review. It is difficult to
summarize the magnitude of findings across a large number of studies without resorting to
numbers.
Quantitative summaries have become a standard feature of research reviews (Rosenthal, 1995). Such
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quantitative reviews are often called "meta -analyses" since they statistically analyze the statistics
reported by other researchers (e.g., Hedges & Olkin, 1985; Hunter & Schmidt, 1990; Rosenthal,
1991). There are several reasons why meta -analytic techniques are useful in the review of sexual
offender recidivism studies. As previously suggested, meta -analyses makes it easy to combine and
organize the results of many studies. In this study we identified over 1,200 findings relating various
characteristics of sexual offenders to recidivism; the sheer volume of such information would
overwhelm any attempt at narrative review.
Another important feature of meta -analyses is that they can provide sufficient statistical power to
detect medium-sized and small effects. By pooling the results of different studies, it is possible to
obtain sample sizes (and the corresponding statistical power) that are much larger than could be
found in any individual study. Meta -analytic techniques also provide numeric estimates of effects,
which facilitates comparisons of the relative importances of various risk indicators. As well, by
calculating the variance in the findings across studies, it is possible to examine the extent to which
risk factors generalize across settings and samples.
One common concern with meta -analyses is whether it is appropriate to combine studies with
different characteristics. Is it reasonable, for instance, to combine the findings of a European study
from the 1940s with a recent study from California? Sexual offender recidivism studies vary
considerably on their definitions of recidivism, their follow-up periods, their subject populations,
and the juridictions in which they are conducted. Although such factors are potential threats to
generalizability, one advantage of a quantitive review is that it is possible to test the significance of
such differences. It is also possible to select studies and meta -analytic methods that maximize the
comparibility of the research findings.
To facilitate comparibility, all the studies included in our meta -analysis employed the same research
design. A group of sexual offenders were assessed on some characteristic (s) prior to having an
opportunity to reoffend. These initial characteristics were then correlated with subsequent
recidivism as recorded during a follow-up period. Retrospective studies that examined the offense
histories at only one point in time were not included. Consequently, we restricted ourselves to those
studies that Furby et al. (1989) consider to provide "by far the best sources of data" (p. 27).
In order to control for the diverse influences of settings and samples, the basic units of analysis were
the correlations found within each study. The follow-up periods, definitions of recidivism, and
criminal justice systems varied across studies, but such factors were the same for all the offenders
within each study. Consequently, these study/setting factors should have limited direct impact on
the correlations within studies (except through their influence on the recidivism baserate - see
discussion below). Rather than being vulnerable to the obvious main effects of factors such as
follow-up time, the within -study correlations were nonetheless susceptible to moderator effects
(interactions between the predictor variable, recidivism and some other variable), Determining the
importance of these moderator effects was one of the empirical question addressed by our meta -
analysis.
Our review attempted to include all reported predictor factors, with the exception of treatment
effects. The effectiveness of treatment for sexual offenders is a sufficiently important question to
justify separate reviews. There have been several recent narrative reviews (Marshall, Jones, Ward,
Johnston & Barbaree, 1991; Marshall & Pithers, 1994; Quinsey, Harris, Rice & LaLumi&e, 1993) and
at least two meta -analyses on the topic (Alexander, 1995; Hall, 1995a). Rather than contributing to
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the debate concerning treatment effectiveness, the present study focussed on risk assessment.
Included in our study, however, were a number of treatment related variables, such as motivation to
attend treatment and previous treatment failure. Some reviewers (e.g., Hall, 1995a) have included
comparisons between treatment drop -outs and completers as evidence of treatment effectiveness,
but we coded such comparisons under the category of "motivation for treatment".
just as there were diverse predictor variables, the research literature contained diverse definitions of
recidivism (e.g., same offense, any violent offense). As well, diverse measures have been used to
assess reoffending, including self -reports, police charges, reconvictions, parole violations, and
treatment program records. To simplify the analysis, these various indices of recidivism were
collapsed into three categories: sexual recidivism, nonsexual violent recidivism, and any (general)
recidivism. These three categories were those most frequently examined in the research literature
and were considered to be the most informative.
In summary, our review asked the following question: compared to other sexual offenders, what are
the characteristics that increase or decrease the recidivism risk of a particular offender? To answer
this question, the results of many follow-up studies were aggregated and analyzed using
quantitative techniques. The use of meta -analytic techniques allowed for the integration of a much
larger number of studies and predictor variables than have been addressed in previous reviews. The
analyses were intended to provide information concerning the relative importance of various risk
factors, and the extent to which the same risk factors generalize to different samples and settings.
Method
Sample
Computer searches of both PsycLIT and the National Criminal justice Reference System (NCJRS)
were conducted using the following key terms: sex(ual) offender, rape, rapist, child molester,
pedophile, pedophilia, exhibitionist, exhibitionism, sexual assault, incest, voyeur, frotteur, indecent
exposure, sexual deviant, paraphilia(c), predict, recidivism, recidivist, recidivate, reoffend,
reoffense, relapse, and failure. Additional articles were sought through the examination of the
reference lists of the collected articles and those of review articles in this area. Finally, letters were
sent to 32 established researchers in the field of sexual offender recidivism requesting overlooked or
as -yet unpublished articles or data.
To be included in the present analysis, a study had to meet the following criteria:
a. Include an identifiable sample of sex offenders. Studies of subjects whose index offenses were
not sexual were excluded, even if some members of the group had offended sexually in the
past.
b. Include a follow-up period. The recidivism had to occur after some specified point in time
(e.g., release from prison, completed treatment). Retrospective studies that only examined the
offenders' criminal history prior to the index offense were excluded.
c. Report on the relationship between an offender characteristic and recidivism during the
follow-up period. The characteristic had to be independent of recidivism status; for example,
"level of community adjustment" would not be included as a predictor variable if reoffending
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was considered a criteria for "poor community adjustment". As well, factors with only limited
local interest (e.g., comparisons between specific hospitals, birthplace) were not coded.
d. Report recidivism information for sexual offenses, nonsexual violent offenses, or any
reoffenses. Studies were excluded if they combined sexual and nonsexual violent recidivism or
if they only reported on a specific type of sexual reoffenses (e.g., rapists who recidivate with
rape). The decision to exclude findings that only examined one type of sexual offense was
based on the assumption that there could be different predictors for different sexual offenses.
Combining all sexual offenses results in a loss of information, but using a standard definition
facilitates comparisons across studies.
e. Include sufficient statistical information. Studies needed to report their sample size, the rate of
recidivism, as well as sufficient information to estimate r or phi (0). A simple statement that a
variable "Predicted" or "did not predict" recidivism was considered acceptable provided that
there was evidence that the relevant statistical tests had been conducted, even if not fully
reported.
As of our deadline of December 31,1995, our search yielded 87 usuable documents (published
articles, books, government reports, unpublished program evaluations, conference presentations,
etc.). When the same data set was reported in several different articles, all the results from the same
data set were considered to come from the same study. Consequently, the 87 documents were found
to represent 61 different studies from six different countries (30 USA; 16 Canada; 10 United
Kingdom; 2 Australia; 2 Denmark; 1 Norway). Slightly less than one half of the studies- (43 %) were
unpublished (e.g., conference presentations, internal agency reports). One half of the studies were
produced after 1989 (range from 1943 to 1995). The median sample size was 198 (mean of 475, range
of 12 to 4,428).
Most of the studies examined mixed groups of sexual offenders (90%), although six studies focussed
exclusively on child molesters. Of the 61 studies, 52 followed samples of adults, six followed
adolescents and three examined both adolescents and adults. The offenders came from either
institutions (48%), the community (25%) or from both (27%). Nineteen studies focussed exclusively
on correctional samples, 11 examined samples from secure mental health facilities, and the
remainder were from a variety of other sources (private clinics, courts, mixture of sources).
Approximately one half of the samples (48%) were from sexual offender treatment programs. When
demographic information was presented, the offenders were reported to be predominantly
Caucasian (27 of 28 studies) and of lower socioeconomic status (27 of 29 studies).
The most common measures of recidivism were reconviction (84%), followed by arrests (54%), self
reports (25%) and parole violations (16%). Forty-four percent of the studies (27 of 61) used multiple
indices of recidivism. The most common sources of recidivism information were national criminal
justice records (41 %), state or provincial records (41 %), records from treatment programs (29 %), and
self reports (25%). Other sources (e.g., child protection records) were used in 25% of the studies. In
43% of the studies, multiple sources were used. In 15 studies, the source of the recidivism
information was not reported. The reported follow-up periods ranged from six months to 23 years
(median of 48 months; mean of 66 months).
Coding Procedure
Each document was coded separately by two raters (the two authors) using a standard list of
categories and coding rules.1 The categories for predictor variables were designed to be consistent
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with common usage in the research literature and to limit the repetition of information from the
same study. In general, these factors could be grouped into the following general areas: a)
developmental history (e.g., family problems, juvenile delinquency); b) demographic factors (e.g.,
age, marital status); c) nonsexual criminal history (e.g., total admissions to corrections); d) sexual
criminal history (prior sexual offenses, age and sex of victims); and e) clinical assessment variables.
The clinical assessment variables were further subdivided into those specifically related to sexual
offending (e.g,, phallometric assessments) and general psychological factors (e.g., IQ, personality
disorders). Considering that the MMPI is frequently used in forensic assessments (Lees -Haley,
1992), the findings of the individual MMPI scales were reported separately.
Only one finding of a predictor variable was coded from any one study (data set). When multiple
findings of the same variable were reported, we used the finding based on the largest sample size. If
the sample sizes were identical, the finding with the most complete information was selected. If the
descriptive detail was also equivalent, we selected the median value (or randomly selected one
value if there were only two values).
When both pretreatment and posttreatment measures were reported, we used the posttreatment
measures, except when the posttreatment findings were based on an insufficient number of cases.
Insufficient numbers were defined as less than 30 cases or if 50% of the cases were lost when
moving from the pretreatment to posttreatinent data.
Index of predictive accuracy
The statistic used to index predictive accuracy was r. Since the recidivism outcome criteria was
dichomotous, r translated into point-biserial correlation coefficients for linear predictors (e.g., age)
and the phi coefficient for dichotomous predictors (e.g,, married or not). The advantages of using T
are that it is readily understood, it facilitates comparisons of the magnitude of the relationships, and
the statistical procedures for aggragating;�s are well documented (Hedges & Olkin, 1985; Rosenthal,
1991). The magnitude of a correlation can be interpreted as an approximation of the percentage
difference in recidivism rates between those offenders who do or do not have a particular
characteristic (Farrington & Loeber, 1989). For example, if the overall recidivism rate was 25% and
"blue eyes" correlated .20 with recidivism, the recidivism rate for the blue eyed offenders would be
35% compared to 15% for the other offenders (.35 -.15 =.20).
Formulae for converting study statistics (F, t, significance levels) into r were drawn from Rosenthal
(1991). The rs were calculated from the most direct data available. If a study reported both the raw
frequencies and a chi-square, for example, the correlation was calculated from the provided
frequencies. Studies that reported no significant relationship between the predictor and recidivism
were assigned a r value of zero; however, if a study reported a nonsigificant relationship, but
specified the direction of the relationship, then a value of r was selected randomly from between
zero and the minimum possible value required for statistical significance, For five studies (Bonta &
Hanson, 1995a; Hanson, Steffy & Gauthier, 1993b; Proulx, Pellerin, McKibben, Aubut & Ouimet,
1995; Reddon, Studer & Estrada, 1995; Thornton, 1995), the correlations were calculated directly
from the original raw data sets using SPSS for Windows (Norugis, 1993), Some of the information
from these unpublished data sets has been reported previously (Bonta & Hanson, 1995b; Hanson,
Scott & Steffy, 1995; Hanson, Steffy & Gauthier, 1992,1993a; Pellerin, Proulx, ouimet, Paradis,
McKibben & Aubut, 1996; Proulx, Pellerin, McKibben, Aubut & Ouimet, in press; Studer, Reddon,
Roper & Estrada, in press).
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Aggregation of findings
Two methods were used to aggregate the study findings. The first method was simply the
calculation of the median r value across studies. Median values have the advantage of being easy to
calculate and interpret: half the studies reported higher values and the other half reported lower
values. On the other hand, median values have certain disadvantages as measures of central
tendency. Firstly, statistics for estimating the variability of median values are not readily available.
Such variability estimates are important for assessing the generalizability of research results across
studies. As well, median values do not take into account factors that may influence the results, such
as recidivism baserates and sample size. Consequently, a second method of aggragating the results
(the weighted averaged r) was used as it promised to provide more accurate estimates than the
median values.
The first step in computing the averaged correlations for each variable involved adjusting each
correlation for differences in the recidivism baserates. Correlations decrease predictably with
reductions in variance (Ley, 1972). With dichotomous variables, such as recidivism, the variance is
greatest when the proportion is 50, and decreases as the proportions approach 0 or I (specifically, s
2 = p(I-p); Hays, 1981). Consequently, the observed correlations would be expected to decrease as
the recidivism rates decrease. To correct for the expected restrictions in the magnitude of
correlations, each of the observed correlations were adjusted using formula 12:8 from Ley (1972):
r' XY = [r XY (s X/ /s x)]/ [1 - r XY 2 + r XY 2 (s X/2 /s X 2)11/2
where rXY is the observed correlation given the observed standard deviation of the base rate (s X)
and r'XY is the adjusted correlation assuming a common standard deviation across the studies,
which, in this case, was the average standard deviation across the studies used in that analysis (s
We had initially planned to apply a similar adjustment for the difference in variability of the
predictors, but there was insufficient information concerning the variance in the predictor variables
to make such an adjustment worthwhile.
The resulting values of r'XY were aggragated using the procedures recommended by Hedges and
Olkin (1985). Each adjusted correlation was transformed into a Zr , where Zr = 1/ 2log[(1 + r)/ (1 -
r)]. A weighted average of the Zr values was then calculated, with weights equal to the inverse of
their variances (n - 3). The resulting average, Z , was then transformed back into an averaged,
adjusted correlation - r,.
Generalizability of findings
Hedges and Olkin's (1985) procedures were used to assess the statistical significance of f+ as well as
variability across studies. Specifically, the significant test was based on a standard normal variate
using the following formula: W = Z (N - 3k)1/2 1, where W is the value of the standard normal
variate, N is the total sample size and k is the number of studies.
Variability across studies was indexed by Hedges and Olkin's (1985) Q statistic: Q = A (ni - 3)(Zi - Z,)
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2
, where n, is the number of subjects in each study, Zi is the transformed correlation for each study,
and Z+ is the weighted, averaged Z. The Q statistic is distributed as a c 2 with k-1 degrees of
freedom (k is the number of studies). An individual finding was considered to be an outlier if a) it
was an extreme value (highest or lowest), b) the Q statistic was significant, and c) the single finding
accounted for more than 50% of the value of the Q statistic. When an outlier was detected, the
results were reported with and without the exceptional case.
Results
The 61 studies provided information on a total of 28,972 sexual offenders, although sample sizes
were smaller for any particular analysis. On average, the sex offense recidivism rate was low, Given
the average 4-5 year follow-up period, 13.4% of the sexual offenders recidivated with a sexual
offense (n = 23,393; 18.9% for 1,839 rapists and 12.7% for 9,603 child molesters), The recidivism rates
for nonsexual violence was 12.2% (n = 7,155), but there was a strong difference in the nonsexual
violent recidivism rates for the child molesters (9.9 %; n = 1,774) and the rapists (22.1 %; n = 782).
When recidivism was defined as any reoffense, the rates were predictably higher: 36.3% overall (1!
19,374), 36.9 % for the child molesters (1! = 3,363) and 46.2 % for rapists (n = 4,017). These averages
should be considered cautiously, since they are based on diverse methods and follow-up periods,
and, as previously mentioned, many,sexual offenses remain undetected. These global figures,
nevertheless, provide the general context within which to interpret the effects of the various
predictor variables.
In total, our review identified 1,235 correlations between various characteristics and recidivism. To
be included in the meta -analysis, however, any particular variable had to examined in at least three
independent studies. Consequently, the meta -analysis included a total of 970 usable correlations.
Most of the correlations concerned sexual recidivism (472), followed by those predicting general
recidivism (329), and nonsexual violent recidivism, (169).
The recidivism predictors are presented separately for sexual recidivism (Table 1), nonsexual violent
recidivism (Table 2), and general (any) recidivism (Table 3). (The tables are at the end of the report.)
For the purpose of presentation, the predictors were grouped into the categories of developmental
history, demographic factors, criminal history, and clinical assessment variables. Within each
category, the variables were ordered from the strongest to the weakest predictors, based on the
averaged, adjusted correlation (r+). The most reliable findings were those for which the mean and
median values were similar, the W (the test of the null hypothesis) was large, and the Q (the
measure of variability) was small. It is important to remember, however, that both W and Q increase
with sample size. With large samples sizes, small effects can achieve high levels of statistical
signficance. In general, variables with correlations less than.10 would have limited practical utility
in most settings.
Predictors of sexual offense recidivism
Three of the developmental history variables significantly predicted sexual offense recidivism:
negative relationship with mother (r+ =16), juvenile delinquency (r+ =.07), and an aggragate
measure of general problems in the family of origin (nonsexual abuse, family disruptions)(r+ =.08).
Although statistically significant, the effects for general family problems and juvenile deliquency
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were so small as to have little practical significance. It was interesting to note that sexual recidivism
was unrelated to reports of sexual abuse as a child (K+ = -.01), or to a negative relationship with
father (r+ = .02).
When considering demographic information, the younger sexual offenders were more likely to
recidivate than were the older sexual offenders. As well, unmarried sexual offenders were at higher
risk than other offenders. None of the other demographic factors were significantly related to sexual
offense recidivism. Only Maletzky (1993) found that low employment stability and low social class
were risk factors. His definition of recidivism, however, was unusually broad: "treatment failure".
This definition included attrition and insufficient therapeutic change in addition to the commission
of a new sexual offense.
The number of prior offenses (r+ = .13) and admissions to corrections Q+ = .09) were also related to
sexual offense recidivism. Histories of prior nonsexual violent offenses and nonviolent offense were
not significant risk factors for sexual reoffending.
Many of the factors concerning sexual criminal history were related to sexual offense reicidivism.
Not surprisingly, a history of prior sex offenses increased the risk of continued sexual offending (r+
= .19). The relationship between the victim and the offender was also an important risk predictor.
Those who selected related child victims (incest offenders) were at lower risk than were 'Other sexual
offenders. Similarly, those who selected any stranger victims were at higher risk than those who
victimized acquaintances (incest offenders were excluded from the stranger/ acquaintance
comparison). Offenders against female children were, on average, less likely to recidivate than were
the other offenders (e.g., rapists, offenders against boys, exhibitionists against adult women).
Conversely, offenders against boys were at slightly higher risk than other sexual offenders (r+ =.11).
Exhibitionists and rapists were also higher risk than average, although the effects were negligible
(less than.10). In general, those who had committed a variety of different sexual crimes tended to be
more likely to reoffend than those who restricted themselves to one specific type of sexual offense.
The remaining sexual crime history variables (sexual intrusiveness, injury to victim, any child
victims, etc.) showed little relationship with recidivism, even though the large samples sizes (up to
13,683) rendered some tiny effects statistically significant.
The largest single predictor of sexual offense recidivism was a sexual preference for children as
measured by phallometric methods. The effect was not consistent across the studies, suggesting that
some assessment procedures were better than others, but the overall effect was substantial (r+
of .32). Our general category "deviant sexual preference" also predicted recidivism. The studies in
this category used mixed definitions of deviance (rape/ child molesting) or mixed methods of
assessment (phallometric, self -report, unknown). Sexual preference for boys, as measured by
phallometric tests, was also a significant risk predictor (.14), but was less discriminanting than the
broad definition of any sexual preference for children (.32). In contrast, a sexual preference for rape
was not signficantly related to sexual offense recidivism (.05).
Sexual offenders legally classified as "mentally disordered sexual offender" under various sexual
psychopath laws were only slightly more likely to reoffend than other sexual offender groups (.07).
Contrary to what is commonly assumed, those sexual offenders who denied their offenses were no
higher risk than other offenders (average r of .02, with no significant variability). Denial was related
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to treatment failure in Maletzky's (1993) study, but it was impossible to tell whether denial was
related only to attrition/ noncooperation with treatment or to reoffending per se.
Few of the general psychological variables showed significant relationships with recidivism. A
history of psychosis was a significant risk factor (r+ = 25, "severely disordered"); there was,
however, considerable variability among these findings, with almost all of this effect being
attributible to a single study of 37 exhibitionists (Hackett, 1971). The most consistent psychological
risk factor was a diagnosis of personality disorder, typically antisocial personality disorder or
psychopathy. Low intelligence was also associated with recidivism, but the effect was small (K,
of .09). None of the general measures of distress or psychological dysfunction were related to sexual
offense recidivism (e.g., depression, anxiety, social skills).
Four studies correlated individual MMPI scales with sexual offense recidivism (Davis, Hoffman &
Stacken, 1991; Hall, 1988; Hanson et al, 1992,1993b; Reddon et al., 1995). The scale most closely
related to deviant sexual orientations, namely the Masculinity-Feminity scale, consistently predicted
sexual recidivism (r+ of .27). Recidivism was also predicted by the Paranoia scale (r, = .16), although
there was significant variability across studies. None of the other scales correlated with recidivism.
In general, the MMPI findings were consistent with the other studies that found no relationship
between general psychological dysfuniction and sexual offense recidivism.
Predictors of nonsexual violence recidivism
As shown in Table 2, nonsexual violent recidivism was predicted by the familiar criminological
variables of prior juvenile delinquency, age (young), minority race and marital status (unmarried).
As well, those with previous offenses, particularly previous violent offenses, were at greater risk for
nonsexual violent recidivism.
Rapists were higher risk for nonsexual violence than were the other sexual offenders (.23),
particularly the child molesters (-.16). Those who selected male victims, related victims, or young
victims were at relatively lower risk for nonsexual violent reoffending. Prior sexual offenses did not
predict nonsexual violent recidivism (r+ =.02).
The only clinical assessment variable that was significantly related to nonsexual violent recidivism
was a diagnosis of antisocial personality disorder/ psychopathy (r+ = .19). Phallometric assessment
of rape preferences showed strong variability across studies (range of -.28 to .22), but was, on
average, unrelated to recidivism. Caution is required in interpreting the results of the clinical
assessment predictors since such factors were examined in a minimal number of studies (three or
four).
Three studies examined the relationship of individual MMPI scales to nonsexual violent recidivism
(Hall, 1988; Hanson et al., 1992,1993b; Reddon et al., 1995). As would be predicted, an elevation on
the Pd (psychopathic deviant) scale was a significant risk factor. Also associated with nonsexual
violent recidivism were a high K scale (subtle defensiveness) and a low Social Introversion scale
score. Given the significant variability in the latter two findings and the modest sample size, it is
unclear whether these effect would replicate in other samples.
Predictors of general recidivism
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Of the developmental factors, the strongest predictor of general recidivism was, not surprisingly, a
history of juvenile delinquency (1:, =.28). General recidivism was also predicted by a negative
relationship with mother (14) and by sexual abuse as a child (.10).
The same demographic factors that predicted nonsexual violent recidivism also predicted general
recidivism. Sexual offenders were at higher risk for any recidivism if they were young, unmarried,
and of a minority race. General recidivism was also predicted by the number of prior offenses (.23),
prior violent offenses (.20), and prior admissions to corrections (.25).
The offenders' sexual criminal history was also related to general recidivism, although the effects
tended to be modest with considerable variability. Those offenders who used force were more likely
to reoffend than other sexual offenders, as were those with prior sexual offenses. Child molesters,
particularly incest offenders, were recidivists less frequently than were the other sexual offenders.
Rapists and exhibitionists were at greater risk statistically, although the effects were of little or no
practical significance (average rs of .05 and .04, respectively).
Those offenders who were unmotivated to attend treatment, or who failed to complete treatment,
were at greater risk for general recidivism than those who completed treatment (1-, = .14). It was
interesting to note that having received treatment prior to the current offense was associated with
reduced general recidivism (-.07, p <.01). Although there was significant variability, classification as
a "mentally disordered sexual offender" was also associated with reduced general recidivism (-.10),
Alcohol use during the offense was, on average, related to general recidivism, but the effect was
based on a single, large study (Motiuk & Brown, 1993). Those offenders who denied committing a
sexual offense were at greater risk for recidivating with a nonsexual crime (.12), although, again,
there was significant variability in the findings.
The general psychological variables tended to be unrelated to recidivism, with the exception of
personality disorders (specifically antisocial personality disorder/ psychopathy) and alcohol abuse.
None of the MMPI subscales were significantly associated with general recidivism.
Combined risk scales
The analyses to this point have examined the predictive power of individual risk factors. The next
question is how well can recidivism be predicted using combinations of variables. Risk scales for
sexual offenders have not received extensive examination, but the available results can,
nevertheless, provide some guidance.
There are several methods of combining variables. One method is to use clinical judgment, in which
expert opinion is used to weigh a variety of information gained through interviews, formal testing,
and offense history. A second method of risk prediction is boldly statistical. With the statistical
method, an algorithm is used to select optimal weights that model the known recidivism results
(e.g., multiple regression). A third method of combining variables is employ objective risk scales.
With these scales, weights are assigned to variables based on either theory or previous statistical
analyses. The difference between objective risk scales and statistical methods is that the weights for
the objective risk scales are not developed on the same sample used to "test" the accuracy of the
results, Statistical methods will always provide the largest correlations since they are designed to
select optimal weights for that sapiple. The objective risk scales, however, provide an estimate of
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how well statistically developed scales could predict in other samples.
As can be seen in Table 4, the predictive accuracy of clinical risk assessments was unimpressive for
sexual (.10, p < .001), nonsexual violent (.06, ns), and general recidivism (.14, p < .001). In contrast,
the statistical risk prediction scales (e.g., stepwise regression) typically produced correlations
substantially larger than those found for any single variable (.46 for sexual recidivism,.42 for
nonsexual violent recidivism and .46 for general recidivism).
The items included in the sexual recidivism statistical risk scales varied considerably across studies.
The scales included between three and nine items, with no single item being common to all six
studies (Abel, Mittelman, Becker, Rathner & Rouleau, 1988; Barbaree & Marshall, 1988; Hanson et
al., 1993b; Quinsey, Rice & Harris, 1995; Prentky, Knight & Lee, 1995; Smith & Monastersky, 1986).
The most common items were prior sexual offenses (used in four studies), deviant sexual
preferences (3 studies), marital status (3 studies), diverse sexual crimes and male child victim (both
used in two stud ies). The differences between the studies can be attributed to the variations in
samples, to the different variables examined, and to the random fluctuations to which "step -wise"
methods as particularly vulnerable (Pedhazur, 1982). Many of the unique predictors identified
through statistical means would not be expected to replicated in other samples (e.g., number of
siblings, adult communication not included as a treatment goal).
We were only able to locate one study (Epperson, Kaul & Huot, 1995) in which a risk instrument
was specifically designed for sexual offense recidivism and then cross -validated on a entirely new
sample. The 21 items in the scale covered sexual and nonsexual criminal history, substance abuse,
and employment. It yielded a correlation of .27 with sexual offense recidivism. Some of the items on
Epperson et al.'s (1995) scale were found to be sexual offense recidivism predictors in this meta -
analysis (e.g., prior sexual offense conviction, age, multiple paraphilias). The present meta -analysis,
however, found that many of Epperson et al.'s items were more closely related to general recidivism
than to sexual offense recidivism (e.g., substance abuse, injury to victims).
Objective risk scales designed for general recidivism showed reasonable accuracy in predicting
nonsexual recidivism among sexual offenders; such scales, however, showed weak relationships
with sexual recidivism. Bonta and Hanson (1995a, 1995b) found that the SIR scale correlated,41 with
general recidivism, .34 with nonsexual violent recidivism, but only .09 with sexual recidivism. The
SIR scale was developed on Canadian federal offenders and included items related to age, marital
status, and 11 items related to criminal history (e.g., history of assault, break & enter, prior .
imprisonment) (Bonta, Harman, Hann & Cormier, 1996). Similarly, the Community Risk/Need scale
used by the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) predicted general parole failure among sexual
offenders (.23, n = 809) only slightly less well than it predicted parole failure among nonsexual
criminals (.33, n = 253; Motiuk & Brown, 1993; Motiuk & Porporino, 1989). Sexual offense recidivism
was not specifically examined in the CSC Risk/ Need studies.
Another objective risk scale that has been applied to sexual offenders is the Risk Appraisal Guide
(RAG; Webster, Harris, Rice, Cormier & Quinsey, 1994). The RAG was developed to predict sexual
or nonsexual violent recidivism among patients at a maximum security psychiatric hospital. The 12
items of the RAG addressed personality disorders, early school maladjustment, age, marital status,
criminal history, schizophrenia and victim injury (the last two items were negatively weighted,
meaning the presence of these factors reduced risk scores), In an application of the RAG to a
replication sample of 159 sexual offenders, Rice and Harris (1995) found that it correlated .47 with
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violent recidivism (sexual and nonsexual violence), but only.20 with sexual offense recidivism.
Discussion
The goal of the present meta -analysis was to identify recidivism risk factors for sexual offenders,
Using 61 different data sets, the review examined 69 potential predictors of sexual recidivism, 38
potential predictors of nonsexual violent recidivism, and 58 potential predictors of general (any)
recidivism. Approximately one third of the variables were significantly related to recidivism (p
< .05) with correlations of .10 or greater. No single factor, however, was sufficiently correlated with
recidivism to justify its use in isolation.
The large number of predictor variables examined in our review did not allow for a detailed
analysis of any individual risk predictor. In particular, the meta -analysis was unable to address the
important practical question of how best to operationalize the various constructs. What the review
was able to do, however, was to distinguish between those constructs that consistently predicted
recidivism, those that consistently did not predict, and those for which further research/ analysis
was justified.
The results of this review suggested that sex offense recidivism was closely related to sexual
deviance. The strongest predictors were phallometric assessments of sexual preferences for'children,
general deviant sexual preferences, a history of prior sex offenses, and, to a lesser extent a history of
diverse sexual crimes. Sexual recidivism was also associated with indices of general criminality,
such as prior nonsexual offenses and antisocial personality disorder, but these correlations were
weaker than the correlations with the measures of sexual deviance.
The age and sex of victims were also related to sexual offense recidivism. Consistent with Quinsey,
Lalumi6re et al.'s (1995) conclusions, sexual offenders were more likely to reoffend sexually if they
selected male victims, and less likely if they offended against related children (incest offenders). Our
review found that rapists were only at slightly higher risk for sexual offense recidivism than were
child molesters, a finding that falls between the conflicting conclusions of Furby et al., (1989) and
Quinsey, Lalumi6re et al. (1995).
A large number of studies found that sexual offense recidivism was related to marital status (single),
age (young), and lack of motivation for treatment. There was considerable variability in the age
findings, suggesting that the relationship between age and recidivism may not be completely linear.
Further research is justified to identify whether recidivism risk peaks at different age periods for
different offenders (e.g., rapists in their 20s and child molesters in their 30s and 50s). Although
motivation for treatment was a reliable risk factor, further research could determine whether there is
a difference between those who drop -out of treatment and those who do not begin treatment at all.
This meta -analysis also identified a number of promising measures not covered in previous reviews.
Although these variables correlated with recidivism, they should be considered cautiously since
they were based on a minimum number of studies. The most interesting of these correlates was a
negative relationship with mother. Both Freudian and social learning theorists should be pleased
with such a findings since a boy's relationship with his mother is often considered the prototype for
the man's subsequent heterosexual relationships. A negative relationship with mother could also be
considered equivalent to having no parental support, since fathers are often uninvolved with
childrearing, Evidence in favour of this latter interpretation were the findings that a negative
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relationship with mother correlated with both sexual and general recidivism.
Other promising predictors of sexual recidivism included early onset of sexual offending, selecting
strangers as victims, and the MMPI Masculinity -Femininity Mf scale. These findings support the
other results associating sexual offense recidivism with indices of sexual deviance. Although the
MMPI Mf scale was originally designed to assess homosexuality, high Mf scores among men with
low education have been associated with general sexual concerns and problems (J. R. Graham,
1990). The MMPI Pa (Paranoia) scale was also related to recidivism, but the high variability in the
findings suggests that it may have limited generalizability.
The high statistical power generated by the meta -analysis also allows for the identification of factors
that are unrelated to recidivism. If the factor's average correlation is close to zero, and there is no
significant variability across a sufficient number of studies (e.g., five), then it is reasonable to
conclude that factor is not a risk predictor. Even though sexual offenders may be somewhat more
likely to have been sexually abuse than nonoffenders (Hanson & Slater, 1988), a history of sexual
abuse was not a risk factor for sexual recidivism (1+ = -.01). Also unrelated to sexual offense
recidivism were substance abuse problems and general psychological problems (anxiety,
depression, low self-esteem, etc.). Furthermore, general psychological problems were unrelated to
any form of recidivism (sexual, nonsexual violent, or general). The implication for treatment
providers is that increasing the subjective well-being of sexual offenders is unlikely to reduce their
recidivism rate (Hanson et al., 1993a).
Among sexual offenders, nonsexual violent recidivism was predicted by many of the same variables
that predict recidivism among nonsexual offenders (Andrews & Bonta, 1994; Champion, 1994;
Gottfredson & Tonry, 1987). The nonsexual violent recidivists tended to be young, single, have
antisocial/ psychopathic personality disorders, be of a minority race, and have a history of juvenile
delinquency and prior violent offenses. There were, as well, strong differences in nonsexual violent
recidivism rates based on sexual offense histories. The recidivism rates were significantly higher for
rapists than for child molesters and incest offenders. Such differences are not surprising since
rapists tend to share more characteristics with the general criminal populations than do child
molesters (Baxter, Marshall, Barbaree, Davidson & Malcolm, 1984; West, 1983). Interestingly,
nonsexual violent recidivism was unrelated to the number of prior sexual offenses.
Although based on a minimum number of studies, nonsexual violent recidivism was associated
with an elevation on the MMPI Pd (Psychopathic deviant) scale, and a low MMPI Social
Introversion scale. These findings are consistent with previous research that have identified violent
offenders as impulsive, extroverted individuals who lack strong bonds to social convention
(Blackburn, 1989; J. R. Graham, 1990; Hare, Forth & Strachan, 1992).
The predictors of general recidivism were similar to the predictors of nonsexual violent recidivism.
General recidivism was associated with a history of juvenile deliquency, prior offenses of any type,
antisocial personality disorder, marital status (single), youthfulness, and race. The only sexual
offense history variable, however, that was reliably associated with general recidivism was that
incest offenders were lower risk.
This meta -analysis found that general recidivism was associated with a number of dynamic risk
factors or criminogenic needs (e.g., Bonta, 1996). Offenders were at higher risk for general
recidivism if they had a current alcohol abuse problem or if they were intoxicated at the time of the
http://home.wanadoo.nl/ipce/library_two/han/hanson-96—txt.htin 8/24/05
offense. As well, those who denied their offenses and/or were unmotivated for treatment were at
higher risk for general recidivism than were other offenders.
This review found that there were different predictors for different types of recidivism. In general,
sexual recidivism was associated with sexual deviance, and, to a lesser extent, general
criminological factors (age, marital status, total prior offenses). The predictors of general and
nonsexual violent recidivism, in contrast, were similar to the predictors of general recidivism among
nonsexual criminals (e.g., age, marital status, juvenile deliquency, antisocial personality disorder)
(Champion, 1994; Gottfredson & Tonry, 1987).
As with previous reviews (Furby et al., 1989; Hall, 1990; Quinsey, LalumiL-re et al., 1995), almost all
the predictors of sexual offense recidivism were historical or extremely stable variables. Historical
factors cannot improve, and it is difficult to change deviant sexual preferences (Rice, Quinsey &
Harris, 1991) or antisocial/ psychopathic personality disorder (Hare et al., 1992). The most
changeable (dynamic) risk factor was motivation for treatment. Offenders who rejected treatment
were at higher risk, but it is possible that such offenders might be able to reduce their level of risk by
renewing their cooperation with a treatment program.
The difficulty in identifying changeable risk factors may be related to the designs of the recidivism
studies. Since the sexual offenses recidivism rate is low (13% over 4-5 years), recidivism studies
require long follow-up periods. Consequently, in follow-up research, only those factors that remain
stable over a number of years have the potential of predicting sexual offense recidivism. Dynamic
predictors of general recidivism are much easier to identify since there is a relatively short period of
time (often months) between the assessment period and the detection of a new offense.
Changeable risk factors need to be assessed close to the recidivism event. Relapse prevention
clinicians, for example, recommend reviewing the clinical records of offenders to identify the factors
that immediately precede the reoffense (Pithers, Beal, Armstrong & Petty, 1989). It is interesting to
note that Pithers, Kashima, Cumming, Beal and Buell's (1988) review of clinical records identified
risk factors that were substantially different than those identified in our meta -analytic review. Based
on coding clinical records, Pithers et al. (1988) identified anger, low self-esteem, and low victim
empathy as common precursors to recidivism, whereas none of these factors were significantly
related to recidivism in our meta -analysis. The conflicting nature of these results may be partly
attributible to the contrast between the short time frames in Pithers et al. (1988) study (days, weeks)
and the long time frames of the studies included in this meta -analysis (years). Pithers et al.'s (1988)
results, however, are difficult to interpret without a control group of nonrecidivists. All sex
offenders may have times when they lack self-esteem (as do most other people), but lack of self
esteem need not be related to recidivism.
The identification of dynamic risk factors requires evidence that changes in certain characteristics
are associated with changes in recidivism risk. McKibben, ProulX and Lusignan (1994), for example,
conducted repeated assessment of conflicts, negative mood, and deviant sexual fantasies among
inpatient sexual offenders. They found that when the sexual offenders were upset, they were more
likely to report deviant sexual fantasies. These significant within -subject correlations contrast with
the nonsignificant between -subject correlations between mood and recidivism for the same subject
population (Proulx et al., 1995). The extent to which sexual offenders are distressed does not predict
recidivism, but sexual offenders appear to react deviantly when distressed.
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Although the lack of repeated assessments may have made it difficult to identify dynamic risk
factors, part of the difficulty could have been related to inadequate measures. In many studies, the
methods for assessing the risk factors were not even described. Improving the assessment of
dynamic risk factors involves two main approaches. The first approach is to develop better
measures of constructs that already have theoretical support, if not empirical support. Included in
this approach would be improved measures of victim empathy (Hanson & Scott, 1995; Malamuth &
Brown, 1994) and deviant sexual attitudes (Bumby, 1996; Hanson, Gizzarelli, & Scott, 1994). Another
approach to identifying dynamic risk factors would be to examine promising constructs that have
yet to be used in follow-up studies. A list of potential dynamic risk indicators could include the use
of sex as a coping mechanism (Cortoni & Marshall, 1995), associations with other sexual offenders
(Hanson & Scott, in press), access to potential victims, and unfulfilled intimacy needs (Frisbie, 1969;
Seidman, Marshall, Hudson & Robertson, 1994).
just as there are promising dynamic risk factors that have yet to be examined in follow-up studies,
there are also a number of potentially important static risk factors that have received little research
attention. Few studies examined developmental history factors, for example, although there is
evidence that such factors may be important predictors of sexual offending. Many sexual offenders
report the development of deviant sexual interest at an early age (Abel, Mittelman & Becker, 1985).
There are well documented links between various childhood variables (e.g., parental discipline,
disobedience) and the development of juvenile delinquency and adult criminality (Andrews &
Bonta, 1994; Loeber & Dishion, 1983; Loeber & Stouthamer-Loeber, 1987). In general, those involved
in persistent adult criminality typically have an esculating progression from minor disobedience,
conduct disorder, and juvenile deliquency (Loeber & Stouthamer-Loeber, 1987). Similarly, there
should be predictable developmental precursors to habitual sexual offending. Asking children
about their deviant sexual fantasies does raise some ethical issues, but it is likely that such research
could be conducted in the context of treatment for high -risk samples (e.g., child sexual abuse
victims, adolescent offenders).
The present review focussed on identifying factors that predicted recidivism among sexual
offenders. Although a large number of individual risk factors were identified, the predictive
accuracy of most the variables was not large (.10 to .20 range), The next logical question addresses
how well recidivism can be predicted using combinations of factors. Our review was unable to
answer this question directly since the intercorrelations between the predictors variables could not
be determined (the variables were measured in different samples). However, given that the
magnitude of the correlations for the best individual predictors were in the .20-30 range, it is likely
that combinations of the variables identified in our meta -analysis could predict sexual recidivism
with correlations in the .30 to .40 range. Correlations in this range are sometimes considered minor
since they "ordy account for" 10-15% of the variance; however, predictor scales that are correlated
with recidivism in the .35 range are able to identify high -risk groups with greater than 80% chance
for recidivism from low -risk groups whose recidivism risk is less than 20% (Hanson et al., 1992;
Quinsey, Rice et al., 1995). Such risk prediction scales would have considerable utility in applied
settings, and are an obvious improvement over the typical methods of clinical risk assessment. It is
likely that predictive accuracy could be increased even further given better understanding and
better measures of the static and dynamic risk factors for sexual offenders.
Author Note
http://home.wanadoo.nl/ipce/library_two/hanihanson-96—txt.htm 8/24/05
We would like to thank Margaret Alexander, Lita Furby, Gordon Hall, Roxanne Lieb, Robert
Freeman -Longo, Robert Prentky, Mark Weinrott, and Sharon Williams for help in locating articles
for this review. The comments of Jim Bonta, Bill Marshall and Robert McGrath on an earlier version
were also appreciated. As well, we would like to thank Jean Proulx, John Reddon, and David
Thornton for access to their original data sets.
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the
Ministry of the Solicitor General of Canada. Correspondence concerning this article should be
addressed to R. Karl Hanson, Corrections Research, Department of the Solicitor General of Canada,
340 Laurier Avenue, West, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, KlA OP8, or by e-mail to hansonk@sgc.gc.ca.
http://home.wanadoo.nl/ipce/library_two/han/hanson-96—txt.htm 8/24/05
A Profile of the Child Molester - Child Lures Prevention
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Home / Research & Articles / A Profile of the Child Molester
Child
Lures A Profile of the Child Molester
Prevention by Kenneth Wooden
Horne
News Pedophiles possess no tidy criminal profile. They come from all walks of life. Sor
Community Plan married, some single; some professional, some blue-collar; some young, some i
Some prefer boys, and some prefer girls. Some are attracted to young children,
School Resources to older children. In short, pedophilia, or sexual attraction to children by an adu
Parent Resources sickness that does not discriminate by race, class, or age. It knows no bounds, i
Church Resources afflicts people in every segment of society.
Program Evaluations Most pedophiles do, however, share several characteristics. The overwhelming r
Leaders in Prevention of pedophiles are male. Only a very small percentage of women abuse children
Research & Articles and they are usually cooperating with a male aggressor.
About Us/Contact Us
Partners & Links Few pedophiles are able to resist their powerful urges to initiate sexual contact
children. As a result, child molesters often make efforts to gain access to or autl
Site Map over children. They take jobs where children are easily approached, or they acti
Order Online pursue youngsters by befriending parents (particularly single parents), attendin,
for children, coaching children's sports, chaperoning camping trips, frequenting
arcades, or offering baby-sitting services to friends, family, and neighbors with
The majority of pedophiles prefer children on the brink of puberty and prey on a
sexual ignorance and curiosity. To quote one molester, "Give me a kid who kno%
nothing about sex, and you've given me my next victim."
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The Missing Link:
Small groups of militant and highly organized child molesters operate worldwide
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through pedophile organizations, whose members claim genuine concern for the
Kenneth Wooden's
of children. Their belief is that sex with children is harmless; some even claim tt
Acclaimed Executive
sexual relations are healthy for children. These groups' goals include decriminali
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child molestation and lowering the age of consent.
The actual number of members in these organizations is unknown, though one,
Rene Guyon Society, is listed in the Gale Encyclopedia of Associations as having
thousand members. Other major pedophile organizations include NAMBLA (The
American Man -Boy Love Association) and PAN (Pedophile Alert Network) in the
Netherlands. Members receive monthly magazines and newsletters that include
seduction techniques and advice on avoiding detection and prosecution. One grc
"Lure of the Month" column gives advice on approaching and seducing children.
month is column, soap crayons were praised for their effectiveness: "Children ui
themselves!"
NAMBLA's "Entrapment of the Month" column has alerted members to covert
government child -pornography sting operations. In one newsletter alone, NAMB
correctly identified ten sting operations in five different states. In just three yea
NAMBLA exposed and compromised four federal sting operations as well, includi
Project Looking Glass, Candy's Love Club, Project Sea Hawk, and Project Bordel
Clearly, these organizations have connections.
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A Profile of the Child Molester - Child Lures Prevention
Page 2 of 2
In addition to attending pedophile conferences and conventions, some child mol
meet via the Internet where they may swap methods, success stories, even nan
descriptions, and images of children. Customs officials indicate that the anonym
nature of Internet communication is quickly replacing the printed pedophile new
While the average child molester does not belong to a pedophile organization, W
be foolish not to take seriously any group whose members are committed to se)
activity with children. Indeed, pedophiles are often difficult to detect and can be
in the most unlikely of places. Knowing this, we must provide our children with I
to recognize and avoid potentially abusive individuals and situations.
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CMdHome / Research & Articles / A 21st Century Model for Prevention
Lures A 21st Century Model for Preventi
Prevention Protecting America's Children & Youth from Se:
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Predators
by Kgnneth Wooden
While performing in New York City's old Palace Theater back in 1921, comedieni
Gracie Allen quipped to George Burns, "My mother told me to 'Never Talk to
Strangers'..." As far back as anyone can remember, that safety slogan has serv,
the bedrock of child safety efforts. Paradoxically, personal safety literature and
programs generated over the years from the "Never Talk to Strangers" adage rr
actually put children at greater risk for abuse.
Research & Articles In reality, most children are sexually abused not by strangers, but by someone'
About Us/Contact Us know, at least on some level - a neighbor, coach, babysitter, family friend, Boy
Partners & Links leader, clergyman, or even a family member. Furthermore, pedophiles are notoi
personable with children and will go out of their way to put a child at ease. In tl�
Site Map of a child, even a complete stranger who engages the youngster in friendly con%
Order Online quickly becomes someone that child "knows."
In 1993, a Chicago pre-schooler helped me educate millions of Americans conce
the "Stranger -Danger" misnomer. In a wake-up call to concerned parents, I
demonstrated on The Oprah Winfrey Show how easy It is to lure children out of
playground, even though they had been coached numerous times by their parer
never talk to or go with strangers.
SEE ALSO:
The Missing Link: As a shocked nation watched, this 3-year-old girl followed me out of the playgrc
Child Lures Creator gate after agreeing to help me find a supposed lost puppy. Afterward, the little i
Kenneth Wooden's clearly distraught mother asked in a shaky voice, "Why did you go with that stri
Acclaimed Executive man?" Her daughter innocently answered, "He wasn't a stranger Mommy, he wi
Security Seminar man!"
Gracie Allen's reference to the "Never Talk to Strangers" safety slogan dates it z
1921 Model of Prevention.
I recently asked military leaders within the National Security Agency:
"Would you fly combat troops in a 1921 model aircraft?"
"Would you arm soldiers with weapons manufactured in 1921?"
"Would you treat their wounds with medicine or medical techniques
utilized in 1921?"
"Would you provide our armed forces with 1921 models of transportation
weaponry or medicine in its efforts against the likes of Saddam Hussein?"
"Would you want our National Security using 1921 technology to monitor
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A 21 st Century Model for Prevention: Protecting Amerias Children & Youth from Sexu... Page 2 of 2
those who are a threat to the United States?"
Of course not. Likewise, should we base our efforts to safeguard children on a 1
model of prevention? Absolutely not. To quote President Abe Lincoln, "The dogrr
the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present."
According to a Gallup Poll, 1.3 million children were victims of sexual abuse in I
alone, and that number continues to rise each year. In the battle against Amerk
epidemic of childhood sexual abuse, relevant and effective prevention must be t
priority.
- Kenneth Wooden
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Reports & Statistics - Child Lures Prevention
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CMdHome
/ Research & Articles / Reports & Statistics
Lurcs
Reports & Statistics
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Reports & Statistics:
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e 1.3 million children were sexually assaulted in 1995.
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The Gallup Poll
December, 1995
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* Nearly 50% of all rape victims are under the age of 18
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* 29% of rape victims are 12-17 years old
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o 15% of rape victims are younger than 12
Research & Articles
Lawrence Greenfeld, Bureau of Justice Statistics
"Sex Offenses and Offenders"
About Us/Contact Us
February 2, 1997
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250,000-500,000 pedophiles reside in the United States.
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U.S. Department of Justice
Convicted child molesters who abused girls had an average of 52 victims
Men who molested boys had an astonishing average of 150 victims.
In a study funded by the National Institute of Mental Health
Dr. Gene G. Abel, Emory University
SEE ALSO:
* 100 children are kidnapped by strangers each year in the United States.
The Missing Link:
U.S. Department of Justice, 2002
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Kenneth Wooden's
o "Even if firearms -related homicides were excluded, the United States has
Acclaimed Executive
homicide rate for children almost four times the other countries' rate."
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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Atlanta, Georgia
February 6, 1997
* 1 In 3-4 girls is sexually abused before age 18.
* I in 6-8 boys is sexually assaulted by age 18.
89% of child sexual assault cases involve persons known to the child, suc
caretaker or family acquaintance.
Diane Russell Survey, 1978
2/3rds of babies born to teenage mothers were fathered by adult men, n4
fellow classmates long suspected.
The Alan Guttmacher Institute, 1996
Based on a California Study
* 13% of adult women have been victims of at least one rape.
* 62% of those assaults occurred before the age of 18.
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Reports & Statistics - Child Lures Prevention
Page 2 of 3
e 29% of rape victims were younger than 12.
"Rape in America, " 1992 - Nat'l Crime Victims Research & Treatment Cen
Medical College of South Carolina
"One of the things that surprised us was that rape in America is a traged)
youth." - Professor Dean Kilpatrick, co-author
2/3rds of sex offenders currently in state prisons sexually assaulted childi
under the age of 18. All but 3% of offenders were male.
U.S. Department of Justice; March, 1996
"Child Victimizers: Violent Offenders & Their Victims"
9 97% of sexually assaultive crimes are committed by men against women
children.
The FBI
e 13% of American women have been raped
25% were 10 years old or younger at the time
Pat Tjaden, Center for Policy Research in Denver
Study yet to be published; Quoted from Feb. 3, 1997 New York Times
"Sexual assault continues to represent the most rapidly growing violent c
America, claiming a victim every 4 seconds. Over 61% of female victims
under the age of 18..."
Lonnie Bristow, M.D.
President, American Medical Association
November, 1995
"Violent child victimizers were substantially more likely than adult victim!-.
have been physically or sexually abused when they were children."
e Just 14% of child victimizers used a weapon, compared to nearly half of t
who victimized adults.
U.S. Department of Justice; March, 1996
"Child Victimizers: Violent Offenders & Their Victims"
The mental scars of any type of victimization last a lifetime. We must adc
psychological side of our violence epidemic in order to stop the cycle of vi
in society.
Dr. Marilyn Benoit
American Medical Association's National Advisory Council on Family Violei
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